Plausibility measurements and more on Planet X

The farther away in time an event is supposed to happen, both in the past and in the future, the harder it is to prove and therefore establish certainty that it has or will happen. Conversely, the closer a supposed event is in time the easier it is to establish its certainty. A similar thing might be said for distance in space, not just time. If something is happening here and now the certainty and amount of proof of it happening is maximum.

This should make every theory about what happened in ancient past as well as any prediction into far future highly suspicious by default. It follows that every prediction of events to happen in immediate, close future that are based on theories of what happened in ancient distant past to be largely suspicious as well.

That said, one way people attempt to get around this fact and therefore convince people to believe these theories with much less suspicion than may be in order is to relate a supposed event from distant past with events in modern times since modern times are much closer in time and therefore much easier to prove and much easier to believe. Here are some examples:


Sometimes the supposition is that in ancient times people were in close contact with god or gods who informed certain people of what will happen in the future. These people are called prophets. Often they prophecise great dooms, but also great times for, usually, believers.

The way this extraordinary supposition is being tied into the more believable realm of modern times is by looking for similarities in events of modern times (close past and present) with events described in these prophecies, trying to prove these prophecies as such and make people believe in them and therefore that events that were prophecised that did not yet happen will happen.


Sometimes the supposition is that something happened in the past which happens periodically through time and that people who lived in the past experienced and wrote about it describing it in various ways, sometimes giving hints to that this event may be cyclical. The way this is tied into modern times is by, obviously, looking for evidence of the exact same thing happening today. This is largely what Planet X theories are all about. The trouble here is that there still remains a high amount of suspicion that what they claim happened in past really did happen as their interpretation of supposed ancient texts may be off or the texts didn’t describe real events in the first place.


It may be explicitely claimed that predictions made weren’t actually prophecies (given by the divine), but actual scientific conclusions by those who lived in ancient times. This too possibly involves Planet X flyby as it may be claimed that ancient humans knew enough about math and astronomy to predict another flyby of a given object in space thousands years in advance, based on mathematical calculations and astronomical observations.

Again, proof is sought in modern times by looking for signs that these events are really coming to pass.

This is how these theories can easily become convincing to some people. If you have insufficient knowledge of what actually IS happening today you’re likely to have even less understanding of what happened in the past prior, let alone ancient past. Essentially you are close to able to buy just about any story someone comes up with. This is why it is crucial to understand the world around you, question everything, look with your own eyes and sense with your own senses, seek proof of credibility of your sources if you ever come to temptation of believing them and keep in mind that the farther in time their suppositions go the less likely they are to be true.

Ultimately it may not even matter as much where particular claims come from as much as the claims themselves. Someone may say something will happen based on bible and another based on some mayan texts. Whatever. Look at the claims and try to determine what has to happen before what they claim can happen too? What would be the signs?

That said, claims that god is coming to Earth for the second time are much much harder to correlate with present times than claims of some asteroid or planet coming near our planet. The latter we can actually fit into some sort of a scientific framework and look for it based on that whereas the former by itself implies total exclusion of all known scientific frameworks. So what if you don’t see anything in the sky or if there is no evidence of anything that couldn’t be explained as a planet, asteroid etc.? God can just appear all of a sudden out of literally nowhere. You can’t exactly go against that claim. You can either take it on faith or reject it. They can tell you of the signs too, but the question is whether the signs they are pointing to really have anything to do with the claim they are making, in the real world as we know it and within the scientific framework. If not then we can’t accept their “signs” as a premise for anything.

This is, again, where Planet X is different. Indeed, they are pointing to increased activity in the sun and disasters on Earth as signs, but they also point out to the scientifically plausible connection between these signs and the actual claim, that the Planet X is coming for a flyby of Earth. This is something that you actually can go and explore for yourself. It doesn’t matter where they’ve gotten this idea. It matters whether the Planet X truly exists, if yes where it is moving, what kind of an object it actually is and what are the trends in natural behaviors on Earth, sun and other solar system objects. IF all these signs do point to the correctness of the Planet X claim then fine. Then you can go ahead and ask yourself what is it that you can do about it. Otherwise, just wait and see. It is possible that in exploring Planet X we may as well discover that while it does exist that it wont flyby any time soon or that it will, but wont cause as much damage as it is claimed it will. Maybe it will just be a spectacular show. ;)

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This entry was posted on Sunday, July 20th, 2008 at 8:16 pm and is filed under Blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through this RSS 2.0 feed. You're welcome to leave a response, or a trackback from your own site.